A look back in the Yemeni media over the last 2 months shows a ’war’ between 2 vitality important issues for Yemen:

1. Security

2. Investment

The war is not an asymmetric confrontation between these 2 issues, though i guess ultimately it is, but a war being simultaneously played out in the Yemeni media. So what has been happening?

Security

• In Sana’a there have been bombs and explosions almost regularly since mid-March. First a mortar fired at a school / US Embassy – yes it isnt clear as to which was the target, 2 bombs in the compound of Canadian Nexen, 1 mortar fired in the Haddah area that landed in the Kuwaiti Oil Residential Compound, and just yesterday (30th April 2008) 1 or more mortar shells fired at either the Italian Embassy or a Yemen Customs Authority Building – another one where the target isnt clear.
• In Seiyun, there were 3 explosions at the police station in late April. These were probably hand grenades.
• In Marib, a landmine was planted that killed 3 policemen.
• In Saa’da, violence seems to continue, with the assassination of an MP, his son and bodyguard. 15 people have been arrested as part of the investigation into this. Also in Saa’da a delegation from Qatar have been attempting to broker a deal between the Al-Houtis and the Yemen Government. The Qataris returned to Sana’a empty handed last week. This is a conflict that is deep routed in tribal, historic and sectarian strife.
• 110,000 weapons have been confiscated since the issuing of ban on all firearms within the walls of the major cities in August 2007.
• The south hasn’t been peaceful either. The Sana’a- Aden road was blocked by security forces in a bid to quell protests in a number of the southern towns. At least the motives for this seems to be clear – tensions between the north and south over perceived bias in Government favouring the north.

Investment

• In March a tourism and real estate conference was held in Al-Mukallah to promote the Hadramout region – ancestral homeland to many Saudis.
• There has also been a lot of talk of allowing Yemen into the GCC. GCC Secretary General Abdul Rahman Al Attiyah was in Sana in February to discuss the strategy for this merger.
• Overtures are being made that there will be a warming of diplomatic relations between the Yemenis and Kuwaitis. (the chill here goes back to the 1991 Gulf War, when Yemen backed Saddam)
• Yemen and Qatar are getting friendlier. The Qataris have been in Yemen to announce a ’$500 Million Yemeni Project’ to build the ’Al Rayyan Hills’ development in the south of Yemen. This is a Dubai-esque uber development. Also the Qataris have got involved in the Yemen banking industry through a JV with CAC Bank in Yemen. Among other things this JV will promote insurance products to the Yemen market.

In 2005 the GCC voted to start the process of Yemen’s integration into the GCC. There are very clear and accepted reasons for this. Yemen is geographically and demographically complimentary – 23 million, young, working class citizens; there is an ancestral heritage between the people of other Gulf states and Yemen; Yemen occupies a strategic location on the Red Sea and Arabian Sea. Lastly, membership of the GCC would see Yemen as a contributor and not a ’charity-case’ taking the periodic hand me downs from its richer neighbours.

Resistance to the inclusion of Yemen comes from the Kuwaitis and Saudis. The Kuwaitis fear Yemen’s inclusion could open the doors to other countries requesting inclusion, Saudi Arabia in a somewhat related argument, say Yemen simply cannot join because it isn’t located on the Gulf. More moderate arguments point to concerns about the opening of the Yemen market to other Gulf investors and the lack of infrastructure and a flaky business environment. Concerns address the poor standards of education in Yemen and the the results achieved by Yemeni Universities. The cancerous ’corruption’ word is never far from the lips of GCC experts either.

Ultimately it is the issues that everyone likes to talk about, which are holding Yemen back: Religious extremism; tribal conflicts; possession of firearms and the social implications of the Qat chewing habit.

Hence we are back to the ’warfare’ between investment and security being played out for all to see in the media. Whilst Yemen tries to attract investment, it cannot help but reveal the barriers to investment.

In another post i will reveal how Yemen is heading towards a new challenge: not to be the a victim on the first front of a new war, one which effects everyone regardless of wealth, religion or creed – the battle for a safe, drinkable water supply.