There isn’t much talk of the ’credit crunch’ in Yemen but the national habit of chewing Qat is turning into what can only be called a ’qat crunch’.

Whilst the western world is obsessing over the credit crisis, sub prime chaos and rising oil prices and its effects on consumer spending and rising costs, Yemen is experiencing similar problems caused by shortages of water, massively increasing food prices and a fast growing population. The price of wheat has increased 3 fold in the last few months. Rainfall in much of Yemen has been minimal this year and the water table in the Sana’a basin is reportedly at worryingly low levels with questions being raised about the quality of the small amount of water that is available. The knock on effect of this drought is that the amount of arable land has drastically reduced. Yemen’s population has increased by 600% in the last 40 years, the population of Sana’a has doubled in the last 10 years and now stands at about 2.5 million people. Everyday there is a new influx of East Africans from Ethiopia and Somalia and it is now estimated that there are 125,000 refugees in Yemen though that number is surely an underestimate. All of this would be bad enough, but when you factor in the economies of Qat, you have an impending crisis.

Qat is the mildly narcotic shrub that has been chewed in Yemen and parts of East Africa for centuries. Much of Yemen’s arable land was used for growing wheat and grain in quantities that made the country almost self sufficient in cereals, but in the last few decades much of the arable land has been given over to Qat production and its higher profits. Qat agriculture consumes more water than any other crop, estimates say that around 20% of Yemen’s natural water supply is used in growing Qat and is drawn from wells at a rate 5 times the water replenishment rate.

With most land given over to qat production, Yemen is having to import between 75% and 90% of its food with no control over the price of these imports on the international markets. Inflation is running at about 10% a year with 45% of the population classed as living below the poverty line (World Factbook 2008). The average daily cost of the Qat habit is about $5. Most Yemenis are trying to live on $2 a day. Sacrifices are being made elsewhere and not with Qat therefore the government is looking to implement a strategy that tries to reduce the supply of Qat through increased taxation and promoting the growth of coffee and grapes which are valuable exports.

It has long been asked how Yemenis could be convinced to drop the Qat habit. It may well be that it happens not because of some clever social education program by a well intended NGO or charity, but as a result of cold, hard economics. Whilst the effects of a Qat chew last a few hours, the Qat crunch may well have a more powerful and longer lasting effect.