Al Qaeda in Arabian Peninsula

So, Obama and Brown are going to save the world from Yemeni and Yemen influenced nasties. The media is loving being able to fill space and 24 hour news graphics with lots of scary details about how Yemen is now home to various head choppers and plane bombers. OK so i love it here and hate hearing anything bad about the place, but yes there are some people here who we, the west, have decided to not to like, namely islamists who dont like us and would like to see either a new caliphate or, simply, have the US and friends withdraw all influence in the Arab world by not supporting Israel. But lets not get too much into that. I would like to give my personal view on the headlines appearing across the world concerning what has been happening in Yemen in the last couple of weeks.

• So UK-USA are worried that there are  several 100 al qaeda ‘fighters’ hanging out in Yemen. I wonder how many al qaeda sympathisers are currently residing within European and US borders – several 1000 i suspect.  So, firstly, lets not get ourselves distracted from the threats in our own countries. The majority of Yemenis are poor and uneducated. They do not make reliable people to get on planes and go and blow themselves up. Even for money, they probably wouldn’t want to. They like to spend their afternoons chewing qat and talking.

• Embassies are closed due to threats. Now, the UK embassy is basically hidden behind a mountain. The US embassy has a perimeter fence that almost stretches to Dubai. I don’t think anyone of any competence could attack them. These embassies are closed so that various diplomatic, military and spook types can have meetings and ‘clean down’ the offices. This is so they can have a complete review of everyone working there and all the communications in and out. A good idea.

What Is Really Going On? Aren’t there loads of crazies coming back from Iraq and Afghanistan to plan attacks on the west?

The moves by the UK and US are to ensure that the Saudi brand of salafi-wahabi islamic rule doesn’t topple the Nationalist – Sunni rule of President Saleh. Make no mistake, Saleh has been doing business with the returning Yemeni sunni insurgents from Iraq (and ex Iraqi military now living in Yemen) by giving them jobs in the army and sending them to fight the Shia Houtis in the North. The fear is that they will then be funded and financed by their Saudi friends and turn against him from the inside. You could draw parallels with Pakistan and how the islamist nasties managed to get themselves deep within the political and militarily organization. The western worry in Yemen is that it has already happened. Seemingly, the southern Yemen provinces of Shabwa and Abyan are already home to some ‘al qaeda’ fighters and politically there are islamist sympathisers in the Sanaa majlis.

The UK-US Game Plan

So, the UK-US fear is not people from the middle of nowhere in Yemen jumping on a plane and blowing up their pants again, the fear is an end game comprising a pseudo-coup by well financed and supported islamists with the nationalist backing of influential Yemeni tribes who have grievances against the Sanaa government. Such an islamist state could  turn Yemen into an unstable islamic Saudi protectorate run by Imams, that could once again be called South Arabia but larger than the original. Western control of the red sea would be in the hands of people who the west ‘can’t do business with’.

So, under the cover of  protecting us in London or New York – which i accept could be genuine but it isn’t the only reason – our governments are looking to protect their geo-political CURRENT and FUTURE interests in Yemen and the Red Sea.

What’s About To Happen? What Should NOT Happen?

1. There will be a rush of money to protect President Saleh and ensure that there are elections which he can win. Saleh is about to become the new Musharraf.
2. There will be drone strikes and constant alerts about terrorist threats in and out of Yemen. It is likely there will be innocent victims.
3. Iran will stoke up the propaganda war.
4. The west has to ensure that none of the western military materiel is used against the southern Yemenis who have their own beef with the government which isn’t religious or terrorism related.
5. Somalia will be brought into it and be blamed for providing fighters and resources due to their amazing skills of cargo vessel piracy.
6. The party will still continue at The Sailors Club in Aden and anyone who has any sense will be in there supping cold Heineken and throwing their riyals around. Like me.