Al Qaeda in Arabian Peninsula

So, Obama and Brown are going to save the world from Yemeni and Yemen influenced nasties. The media is loving being able to fill space and 24 hour news graphics with lots of scary details about how Yemen is now home to various head choppers and plane bombers. OK so i love it here and hate hearing anything bad about the place, but yes there are some people here who we, the west, have decided to not to like, namely islamists who dont like us and would like to see either a new caliphate or, simply, have the US and friends withdraw all influence in the Arab world by not supporting Israel. But lets not get too much into that. I would like to give my personal view on the headlines appearing across the world concerning what has been happening in Yemen in the last couple of weeks.

• So UK-USA are worried that there are  several 100 al qaeda ‘fighters’ hanging out in Yemen. I wonder how many al qaeda sympathisers are currently residing within European and US borders – several 1000 i suspect.  So, firstly, lets not get ourselves distracted from the threats in our own countries. The majority of Yemenis are poor and uneducated. They do not make reliable people to get on planes and go and blow themselves up. Even for money, they probably wouldn’t want to. They like to spend their afternoons chewing qat and talking.

• Embassies are closed due to threats. Now, the UK embassy is basically hidden behind a mountain. The US embassy has a perimeter fence that almost stretches to Dubai. I don’t think anyone of any competence could attack them. These embassies are closed so that various diplomatic, military and spook types can have meetings and ‘clean down’ the offices. This is so they can have a complete review of everyone working there and all the communications in and out. A good idea.

What Is Really Going On? Aren’t there loads of crazies coming back from Iraq and Afghanistan to plan attacks on the west?

The moves by the UK and US are to ensure that the Saudi brand of salafi-wahabi islamic rule doesn’t topple the Nationalist – Sunni rule of President Saleh. Make no mistake, Saleh has been doing business with the returning Yemeni sunni insurgents from Iraq (and ex Iraqi military now living in Yemen) by giving them jobs in the army and sending them to fight the Shia Houtis in the North. The fear is that they will then be funded and financed by their Saudi friends and turn against him from the inside. You could draw parallels with Pakistan and how the islamist nasties managed to get themselves deep within the political and militarily organization. The western worry in Yemen is that it has already happened. Seemingly, the southern Yemen provinces of Shabwa and Abyan are already home to some ‘al qaeda’ fighters and politically there are islamist sympathisers in the Sanaa majlis.

The UK-US Game Plan

So, the UK-US fear is not people from the middle of nowhere in Yemen jumping on a plane and blowing up their pants again, the fear is an end game comprising a pseudo-coup by well financed and supported islamists with the nationalist backing of influential Yemeni tribes who have grievances against the Sanaa government. Such an islamist state could  turn Yemen into an unstable islamic Saudi protectorate run by Imams, that could once again be called South Arabia but larger than the original. Western control of the red sea would be in the hands of people who the west ‘can’t do business with’.

So, under the cover of  protecting us in London or New York – which i accept could be genuine but it isn’t the only reason – our governments are looking to protect their geo-political CURRENT and FUTURE interests in Yemen and the Red Sea.

What’s About To Happen? What Should NOT Happen?

1. There will be a rush of money to protect President Saleh and ensure that there are elections which he can win. Saleh is about to become the new Musharraf.
2. There will be drone strikes and constant alerts about terrorist threats in and out of Yemen. It is likely there will be innocent victims.
3. Iran will stoke up the propaganda war.
4. The west has to ensure that none of the western military materiel is used against the southern Yemenis who have their own beef with the government which isn’t religious or terrorism related.
5. Somalia will be brought into it and be blamed for providing fighters and resources due to their amazing skills of cargo vessel piracy.
6. The party will still continue at The Sailors Club in Aden and anyone who has any sense will be in there supping cold Heineken and throwing their riyals around. Like me.

Subject of the chew was mainly to do with Iran elections and the Saa’da kidnapping.

The latest theories on the kidnapping – in which actually only 3 bodies have been discovered not known publically what has happened to the other people – are as follows:

1. Jihadist freelancers funded by Saudis popped over the border from a camp in Saudi and did it

2. Known sunni mercenaries – used by the Yemen government to help out in the battle with (shia) Houti – who have jihadist Al Qaeda sympathies, were inspired to do the kidnapping by a ‘radical cleric’ (hate that phrase as it is so western media, but had to use it as i am being lazy) during Friday prayers in Saa’da.

3. Al Houti kidnapped them, Yemen military bungled a rescue and shot 3 of the group – the 2 germans and the Korean.

More gossip from Qat chews next month.

Here’s some links to the story:

BBC – Tourists Die In Explosion

Reuters – Qaeda Bomber Behind Yemen Attack Trained In Somalia

CNN – Al Qaeda Blamed

In the last 2 years there has been some high profile terrorist attacks in Yemen. In the summer of 2007 a group of Spanish tourists were targeted at the ‘Sheba’ temple complex in Marib. Following that in January 2008, a tourist convoy of Belgians were attacked on the road to Hajarain in Wadi Doan – an area in Hadramout. There is now the latest incident involving tourists.

It is somewhat harshly ironic that Hadramout means ‘Death Comes’. It was so named hundreds of years ago as the region is hot, dusty, dry and tribal. The name seems sadly more than apt in the 21st Century.

My last visit to Hadramout was in October 2008. It was very different than previous trips. More security, some restrictions on movement and when visiting Shibam i was asked for my details by an elder of the town.  As always i moved using local transport.  Using high profile tourist 4 X 4’s has never been my preferred mode of transport and for sure it wont be now.  Are some of the Yemeni tour companies compromised by Al Qaeda sympathisers or operatives? You can’t help but wonder, and i genuinely hate to as that question has serious implications for the Yemen tourism industry.

If you are looking for advice on business or travel through Yemen, of course you should contact your government, and feel free to drop me a line.

US Embassy in Sana’a Under Attack

Attack on US Embassy in Sana’a – What Next?

Backstory: The leader of Al-Qaeda in Yemen was killed earlier this year in Tarim. In the shootout some of his henchmen were captured and imprisoned. A number of the group members escaped, or, were not involved in the action and presumably held in reserve for future attacks. In the days leading up to the recent US Embassy attack, the government was warned that an attack will happen on the day during Ramadan that coincides with the day Mohammad fought with the inhabitants of Medina, unless the prisoners from the Tarim incident were released. The President said no.

The US Embassy Attack 17th September 2008: Sometime between 8am and 9am – a security guard shift change – 2 vehicles loaded with explosives approached the US embassy gates. Inside the second vehicle were assailants with machines guns and RPGs. There seems to be have been some disorganisation amongst the attackers in that the plan should have been to bomb the guard post, remove the barricades, bring the second car bomb and RPGS in, take out the front entrance to the embassy itself and then storm it with the weapons. It seems the shooting was started by the assailants before even the first car bomb went off.

The nature of the attack is reminiscent of the October 2005 attacks in Baghdad on the Palestine Hotel and Sheraton Hotels, which was captured on CCTV. It is also similar to what recently happened to the Marriot Hotel Islamabad

The Latest Intel: More threats have been made. These includes threats to attack the US Embassy again as well as the British Embassy. The British Embassy is closed and they have all gone home. Kindly the Sana’a British Consular sent out a mass SMS to all British citizens saying to avoid all but essential travel to Sana’a. I got this whilst sipping tea in the garden of my Sana’a villa admiring the passion flowers. US, British and Saudi (Al-Qaeda is pissed with Saudi for kicking them out and they want to go back there) interests are all threatened. The potential day for these attacks are just before the end of Ramadan and beginning of Eid, a day on which martyrs will get to heaven the quickest. The British Embassy will re-open after Eid.

Will report more if anything further happens.

Technorati Tags: Yemen, Us embassy attack, Yemen, Terrorism, Al qaeda